Pathways to Prosperity: Canada

A number of social groups are numerically under-represented within elected local councils in Ontario. In a recent paper, author Karen Bird examines the representational deficit facing women, visible minorities, and the foreign-born, following the October 2010 municipal elections across the province. Drawing on an original survey of approximately 1,500 declared candidates across Ontario’s 23 largest cities (with at least 100,000 inhabitants), it finds that the under-representation of visible minorities is especially severe. Part of the problem begins with a deficit in visible minority candidacies. However this ‘supply-side’ account cannot explain why visible minorities are much less likely than other under-represented groups to get elected when they do run. Nor can it explain why the representational deficit facing visible minorities is so pronounced at the local level, compared to the provincial and national levels.

The main hypothesis investigated by the research is that voter bias might play a role. To assess the role of voter bias in these municipal elections, a voter survey with an embedded experiment was undertaken. The experiment served to identify variations in assessments of and support for a hypothetical candidate for city council – across a diverse sample of Ontario voters – when that candidate is male or female, a visible minority or non-minority.

The results show that there is a significant ethnic affinity bias: voters assess more positively, and are more likely to vote for, same-ethnic over different-ethnic candidates. While the effect is most pronounced in the case of South Asian voters’ willingness to vote for a South Asian candidate, there is also a strong tendency for white voters to prefer a white candidate. In contrast, female candidates receive strongest support from male voters (an opposite sex-affinity effect), and are less disadvantaged by any form of voter bias.

Drawing together the findings of the candidate survey and the voter experiment, the paper proposes several potential mechanisms through which voter biases may contribute to the representational gaps observed in local electoral politics. One important implication concerns the need for greater voter information to override same-ethnic preferences. Specifically, it seems that the lack of partisan cues and weak media coverage of municipal elections serves to enhance the heuristic power of racial/ethnic and gender cues, and this is particularly disadvantageous for visible minority candidates. Finally, the paper considers the normative implications of the findings. The author argues that in the context of Ontario’s virtually lily-white city councils, there is cause for concern that white voters are strongly inclined to vote for a white candidate and disinclined to vote for a South Asian. It appears less problematic – more like pride than prejudice, according to the author – that South Asian voters also demonstrate a strong preference to elect one of their own. In the current circumstances, this may be the only strategy available for visible minorities to find a voice to speak on their behalf, or at least to serve as a symbol of political inclusion in a municipal arena that remains so ethnically exclusive. The paper is available here.